For previous diaries in this series, see here
I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to swingstateproject
These are all states with filing deadlines in early April
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of tShe district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
FL has 25 congressional districts, 9 Democratic and 16 Republican
CT has 5 districts, 1 Republican and 5 Democratic
MI has 15 districts, 6 Democratic, 9 Republican
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
CT-01 D+14 .46 Larson No Safe
CT-02 D+8 .78 Courtney Yes Vul
CT-03 D+12 .45 DeLauro No Safe
CT-05 D+4 .62 Murphy Yes Prob safe
FL-02 R+2 .46 Boyd Yes Prob safe
FL-03 D+16 .09 Brown No Safe
FL-11 D+11 .16 Castor Yes Safe
FL-16 R+2 .51 Mahoney Yes Vul.
FL-17 D+35 .05 Meek No Safe
FL-19 D+21 .40 Wexler (only primary) Safe
FL-20 D+18 .37 WassermanSchulz No Safe
FL-22 D+4 .56 Klein Yes Prob. safe
FL-23 D+29 .06 Hastings Yes Safe
MI-01 R+2 .78 Stupak Yes Safe
MI-05 D+12 .43 Kildee Yes Safe
MI-12 D+13 .14 Levin No Safe
MI-13 D+32 .06 Kilpatrick No Safe
MI-14 D+33 .06 Conyers No R U Kidding?
MI-15 D+13 .46 Dingell No Safe
(trivia note: Dingell is the only congressperson who’s been in my entire life. Not only that, but his father was the congressman from this district before he was…. from 1932 to 1957).
Those held by Republicans
CT-04 D+5 .63
CT-04 includes one of the wealthiest towns in the USA (Greenwich) but other towns, too – it has the 24th highest median income of any district, but only the 73rd lowest proportion in poverty. It’s the southern part of the state, with many NYC suburbs and exurbs, bordering NY and the Atlantic
Shays, first elected in 1987, may retire; even if he does not, this is prime pickup territory: Shays had tough races in 04 and 06.
One confirmed challenger: Jim Hines Hines, a former investment banker, could probably raise the money, and has an interesting bio.
FL-01 R+19 .40
FL-01 is the western part of the panhandle of FL, bordering AL and the gulf of Mexico; it has the highest proportion of veterans of any district in the country (of the top 10 districts, 5 are in FL…FL-05, FL-13, FL-14 and FL-15). This bodes well for Democrats, as this demographic group is changing from being hugely pro-Republican.
Miller, first elected in 2001, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
There are two confirmed challengers: Joe Roberts the 2006 candidate and Bryan James (no website as yet)
FL-04 R+16 .50
FL-04 is the northeast corner of FL, where the panhandle joins the pan, bordering GA and the Atlantic, and including eastern suburbs of Tallahassee and the (White)parts of Jacksonville. The 4th is an odd looking district, designed (it seems) to get all the Whites it can, while the 3rd gets all the Blacks it can
Crenshaw, first elected in 2000, has won easily when he has had an opponent.
There is no confirmed candidate, although the 2006 candidate seems like he’s running, at least, he thought so in October.
FL-05 R+5 .61
FL-05 is along the Gulf Coast where FL bends from East-West to North-South
Ginny Brown-White, first elected in 2002, won a very tough race in 2002 (she got less than 50%), won easily in 2004, but was held to 60% in 2006 although she outspent her opponent (John Russell) almost 10-1
Russell might run again, but the only confirmed challenger is David Werder (no web site)
FL-06 R+8 .50
FL-06 is interior FL, where there state is fattest.
Stearns, first elected in 1988, has won easily without raising much money
The (apparently) confirmed challenger is Dave Bruderly , who lost the last three times, albeit with decreasing margins.
FL-07
FL-07 is the northern part of the Atlantic coast of FL, including St. Augustine.
Mica, first elected in 1992. In 2006, he got 63%, but his opponent had only $11,000.
There are two confirmed challengers:
Faye Armitage
and
Clyde Malloy
FL-08
FL-08 is interior FL, running northwest from Orlando
Keller, first elected in 2000, promised to serve only 3 terms. Guess what? He lied. In 2006 he got a fairly strong challenge, winning 53-46 over Charlie Stuart.
He has several challengers this time:
Mike Smith ; Quoc Ba Van (intriguing….a first generation American, he’s a law student who’s also a champion weightlifter);
Alan Grayson (a really good website by a guy who has spent years suing contractors in Iraq) and
Alexander Fry (no website yet).
(Also, he’s being primaried by two people)
FL-09 R+4 .48
FL-09 is the western part of central FL, along the gulf coast, it completely surround FL-10, which is St Petersburg.
Bilirakis, first elected in 2006, succeeded his father in the district. He won, 56-44.
He has two confirmed challengers: John Dicks ; Mike van Hoek
FL-10 D+1 .35
FL-10 is between the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay. It is almost separated in two pieces by FL-11 (the connection in FL-10 is over water). FL-10 is 88% White. FL-11 is 48% White. Hmmm
Young, first elected in 1970, has an intriguing life story, and may be the only congressperson who doesn’t have a HS diploma. He has won easily, often unopposed. He may retire, as he will be 78 in 2008.
Samm Simpson , who lost in 2006, is running again. If Young retires, this will be a very competitive district.
FL-12 R+5 .41
FL-12 is as close to the middle of FL as any district, and extends west to the gulf coast.
Putnam, first elected in 2000, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2006, he had no Democratic opposition, but still got ‘only’ 70%
He does have a Democratic opponent in 2008: Doug Tudor who is on active duty in the Navy.
FL-13 R+5 .51
FL-13 is on the gulf coast and includes Sarasota
Buchanan, first elected in 2006, won (apparently) the closest election of the year, winning by 359 votes out of 237,000 cast (it’s not completely clear to me if anyone is still protesting this election in any real way).
The woman he beat Christine Jennings is running again, as is Mik LaFevers (per Wiki) but his website is down.
FL-14 R+10 .52
FL-14 is the gulf coast around Naples
Mack, first elected in 2004, won easily then and in 2006 against Robert Neeld, who had little money.
Neeld might run again, but the only confirmed challenger is Larry Byrnes
FL-15 R+4 .43
FL-15 is the Atlantic side of central FL, from Cocoa to Vero Beach
Weldon, first elected in 1994, has had a number of close races. In 2006, he got 56% against Bob Bowman, despite outspending him 8-1
Bob Bowman is running again (I love that bit on the right side “Constitutional Threat Advisory”); as is Steve Blythe
FL-18 R+4 .29
FL-18 is southeastern FL, including most of Miami and all of the Keys
Ros-Lehtinen, first elected in 1989, has won easily against underfunded opponents
A recently confirmed challenger is Annette Taddeo (see here for a bio).
FL-21 R+6 .34
FL-21 is a ? shaped district, just inland from the Atlantic, and including parts of Miami. It has the 8th highest proportion of Latinos of any district (and the 2nd highest outside of CA and TX)
Diaz-Balart, first elected in 1992, has mostly won easily. In 2006, though, he was held to 59% against Frank Gonzalez (running as a Democrat), who raised less than $20,000 and who is now running as a “Ron Paul Independent” (a what????) (in 2004, he ran as a libertarian)
This year, Diaz-Balart has a Republican challenger, the aforementioned Gonzalez, Richard Allbritton (a Democrat, who is running) Raul Martinez has just said he is running.
FL-24 R+3 .48
FL-24 is roughly in the middle of the Atlantic coast side of FL, going interior to Winter Park
Feeney, first elected in 2002, was unopposed in 2004, but in 2006 was held to 58% by Clint Curtis, who raised only $84,000.
Curtis is running again; as is Suzanne Kosmas and Garv Bhola. Curtis looks the most likely, and the most progressive.
FL-25 R+4 .38
FL-25 is the southern end of FL, including part of Miami
Diaz-Balart, first elected in 2002, was held to 58% in 2006 by Michael Calderon, who raised less than $40,000.
A recently confirmed challenger is Joe Garcia
MI-02 R+9 .74
MI-02 is the western part of MI, bordering Lake Michigan
Hoekstra, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
There are two confirmed challengers: Fred Johnson and Scott Killips who looks to be more progressive (see also this story by kossack PerfectStormer
MI-03 R+9 .59
MI-03 includes Grand Rapids
Ehlers, first elected in 1993, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
He has no confirmed opponents
MI-04 R+4 .80
MI-04 runs northwest to southeast, with the southeast being in the middle of the state and the northwest being on Lake Michigan
Camp, first elected in 1990, has won easily against underfunded opponents
This year, there is one confirmed challenger: Andrew Concannon
MI-06 R+2 .68
MI-06 is the southwest corner of MI, bordering Lake Michigan and IN
Upton, first elected in 1986, has won easily.
There are no confirmed challengers
MI-07 R+2 .77
MI-07 is the central part of southern MI including Battle Creek
Wahlberg, first elected in 2006, got only 50% of the vote despite having a 20-1 fundraising edge over Sharon Renier.
Partly because of that, this district is abuzz with challengers and potential challengers.
Confirmed challengers include Mark Schauer (no campaign site) and Jim Berryman
MI-08 R+2 .73
MI-08 include Lansing and suburbs
Rogers, first elected in 2000, was held to 55% in 2006.
There are no confirmed challengers, someone should go for this one!
MI-09 R+0 .58
MI-09 is centered on Pontiac, to the northwest of Detroit
Knollenberg, first elected in 1992, has not had easy races lately, and 2006 was the closest of all: He won 52-46 over Nancy Skinner, although he spent $3 million to her $400,000.
Confirmed challengers are: Gary Peters ; Rhonda Ross (site under construction); and the 2006 candidate: Nancy Skinner .
MI-10 R+4 .80
MI-10 is northeastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron
Miller, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents. She might run for Senate against Levin
There are no confirmed challengers
MI-11 R+1 .63
MI-11 is the far western suburbs of Detroit
McCotter, first elected in 2002, has not had easy races. In 2006, he won 54-43 against Tony Trippiano, despite spending 7 times as much
There are two confirmed challengers: Tom Spencer and Edward Kriewall (no websites for either)
Summary
CT-04 is definitely winnable even if Shays stays in. I am worried about Courtney, though.
FL-10 is competitive if and when Young retires. FL-13 is certainly competitive. FL-24 might be interesting, as could FL-21 and FL-25. I’m concerned about FL-16, Mahoney has several credible challengers.
MI-07 is certainly competitive, as is MI-09. MI-11 might be, depending on the opponents.
I greatly appreciate these posting as they are filled with useful information but you seriously need to work on your research here.
Florida 8 while you list 4 of the 6 Democrats running, you left off Corbett Krohler and the 06 nominee, Charlie Stuart
In Florida 24, you list Clint Curtis as the most likely candidate to win. You seem to be the only person who thinks that as Suzanne Kosmas is expected to blow the socks off everyone in the primary.
In Michigan 7, Jim Berryman dropped out of the race back in September 2007 and Mark Schauer’s web site can be found here, http://www.markschauer.com/
Also, I wouldn’t be too worried about Courtney, he defeated an established incumbent Republican in a Democratic leaning district and his opponent has thus far been a dud.
Once more, Joe Cortney’s official margin of 60 vites was the closest in the nation. The count in Sarasota County was suspicious making that seat (FL-13) the one most likely to be contested in the House. It is just amazing that Courtney doesn’t have more of a challenge because once he gets in, he’ll have a nice run in his district.
Jim Himes is the likely opponent in CT-4. Shays was making noise a few months ago like he would not seek re-election. This is one where my gut says he wants to retire as the undefeated champ and make some money for a bit prior to a statewide race.Of course, I’ve been right on some of these and wrong on others. (one other typo: CT has 5 seats, 4 (not 5) Democrats and 1 Republican).
It’s sure nice to see Klein’s seat in Florida listed as Probably safe. With the current gerrymander, the other 7 seats are incredibly safe. This means we get to hunt for several seats and really need to defend just one (the Mark Foley scandal seat).
Gary Peters is a strong candidate, running a strong campaign.
He is the first challenger to Joe Knollenberg who has ever held elected office before. He previously served as a Michigan State Senator representing parts of the 9th district. After that he ran for Attorney General losing by about 1 vote per precinct (He likes to say he’s the poster child for Every Vote Counts!) He then served as State Lottery Commissioner, delivering record profits for public schools while staying $13million under budget.
He was the Sierra Club’s Environmentalist of the Year in the Senate after working to ban drilling for oil in the Great Lakes. He also received a Legislative Advocacy Award from MARAL (Michigan branch of NARAL) for his support of women’s reproductive rights. He is a former Lt. Commander in the Navy Reserve who believes the best way to support the troops is to bring them home, and start doing that now.
Gary has been endorsed by the entire Michigan Democratic Congressional Delegation, the Michigan AFL-CIO (their earliest congressional endorsement ever), SEIU, AFSCME, UFCW, and every other labor organization to endorse in this race. He has the support of nearly every Democrat elected from the 9th District. He is supported by Triangle Pride PAC. He was recently was endorsed by the Michigan Association of Police Officers.
I contributed to a diary here at SSP last year featuring a statistical analysis of the 9th district. As you can see, Gary always runs a strong campaign. From what I’ve learned since then it’s safe to say this can be attributed for Gary’s hard work ethic on the campaign trail, and his passion for people powered grassroots campaigning.
Keep an eye on Shays; now that Jim Walsh up in Syracuse has decided to retire, Shays may also be on the way out. The two are very similar in age, tenure, and politics, and Shays’ district is even more Democratic than Walsh’s NY-25. The possibility of being the one Republican left in the entire northeast (retire McHugh dammit) can’t be something Shays is looking forward to.
The last two elections have been absolutely brutal for Shays, and seem to have taken some of his quiet optimism away. It seems Himes is outraising Shays too, so he must know he’s in for a real bloody fight. The prospect of the Dem presidential nominee carrying the state by 15 or 20 points can’t be seen as very promising for Shays either.
Courtney seems to be safe, as his once touted opponent has turned out to be terrible. His district is a weird suburban-rural one that is very similar to heavily Democratic areas like Western Mass and Vermont, yet it is also wildly unpredictable (it also had the closest race in 1994: 21 votes!). Still, Courtney is a likeable guy, and coattails from the Dem presidential race might be enough anyway to give him an easy victory.
Murphy is a very savvy politician, and will cruise to a victory, probably something like 55-45%. CT-05 was a 50/50 district in 2004, but the way the wealthy Hartford suburbs gave him huge victories in 2006 might mean this district has shifted to the Dems even more than that D+4 PVI
This may be the year Larson and Rosa both recieve over 80%; even conservative-leaning newspapers like the Hartford Courant, Waterbury Republican, and New Haven Register concede they both do a good job. Though a GOP primary in CT-01 would be funny to see again; just seeing two republicans fight for the chance to lose by 50 points to Larson is fun to see.
Tom Spencer does have a website. Tom is a 20-year veteran of the US Air Force, and a pastor in the United Methodist Church for 13. He's going to be a great candidate, but we need a LOT of help! Rep. McCotter has over $300k cash on hand. I've set up an ActBlue page for Friends of Tom Spencer.
More info on the 11th District race can be found at my blogs:
Phi Kap Blog
The McCotter Monitor
The key here is going to be getting out the word of how big a menace Thad McCotter is. Many people don't even know who he is or that he's their Congressman, but they vote for him anyways.